Beyond the Numbers: How ZEPARI’s Latest Studies Point the Way to Stronger Banks and Better Jobs for Zimbabwe

Economic policy is not only about statistics, models, and technical analysis. At its core, it is about building resilient financial systems, supporting productive businesses, protecting livelihoods, and creating opportunities for decent employment.

This was the central message during a high-level validation workshop convened by the Zimbabwe Economic Policy Analysis and Research Institute (ZEPARI), where government representatives, financial sector experts, development partners, academia, and other stakeholders reviewed findings from two major research studies:

1. Banking Industry Competition, Efficiency, and Stability in Zimbabwe
2. Structural Transformation in Zimbabwe: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities

The studies provide evidence-based insights into how Zimbabwe can strengthen financial sector resilience and accelerate economic transformation.

Building a Banking System That Supports Growth

The study on banking competition examined the relationship between competition, efficiency, and stability across 18 commercial banks between 2012 and 2025.

The findings challenge the assumption that increased competition weakens financial institutions. Instead, the research shows that healthy competition encourages banks to improve efficiency, strengthen risk management, and allocate resources more effectively.

However, the study highlights that banking stability depends on more than competition alone. Macroeconomic conditions remain critical, with high inflation and rising non-performing loans (NPLs) identified as key risks affecting financial sector resilience.

The research highlights the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment alongside effective regulatory oversight to protect depositors and promote financial inclusion.

Transforming Zimbabwe’s Economy Through Productivity and Value Addition

The second study examined Zimbabwe’s structural transformation journey between 1991 and 2023, assessing changes in employment patterns, production, exports, and industrial development.

The findings highlight several key challenges:

1. Moving Workers into Higher Productivity Activities

Although labor has gradually shifted away from agriculture, much of this movement has been towards low-productivity informal urban services rather than higher-value industries. This has created a situation often described as “urbanization without industrialization.”

2. Revitalizing Manufacturing and Agro-Processing

The study notes that manufacturing’s contribution to GDP has declined from historical levels of approximately 22–23% to around 14–15%.

Restoring industrial capacity will require:

1. improved macroeconomic stability;
2. investment in productive sectors;
3. stronger value chains;
4. increased agro-processing and manufacturing capacity.

3. Addressing Infrastructure Constraints

Reliable energy, efficient transport systems, and modern logistics infrastructure remain essential for improving competitiveness.

The study highlights the importance of well-designed Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in addressing infrastructure gaps and unlocking opportunities under regional initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Turning Evidence into Policy Action

Speaking at the validation workshop, ZEPARI Executive Director Dr. Gibson Chigumira reaffirmed the institute’s commitment to generating evidence-based research that supports national development priorities.

The validated studies will contribute to policy discussions and implementation strategies under the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2) as Zimbabwe continues its journey towards achieving Vision 2030.

Through research, dialogue, and stakeholder engagement, ZEPARI continues to strengthen the link between evidence, policy, and sustainable economic development.

Economic policy is not only about statistics, models, and technical analysis. At its core, it is about building resilient financial systems, supporting productive businesses, protecting livelihoods, and creating opportunities for decent employment.

This was the central message during a high-level validation workshop convened by the Zimbabwe Economic Policy Analysis and Research Institute (ZEPARI), where government representatives, financial sector experts, development partners, academia, and other stakeholders reviewed findings from two major research studies:

1. Banking Industry Competition, Efficiency, and Stability in Zimbabwe
2. Structural Transformation in Zimbabwe: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities

The studies provide evidence-based insights into how Zimbabwe can strengthen financial sector resilience and accelerate economic transformation.

Building a Banking System That Supports Growth

The study on banking competition examined the relationship between competition, efficiency, and stability across 18 commercial banks between 2012 and 2025.

The findings challenge the assumption that increased competition weakens financial institutions. Instead, the research shows that healthy competition encourages banks to improve efficiency, strengthen risk management, and allocate resources more effectively.

However, the study highlights that banking stability depends on more than competition alone. Macroeconomic conditions remain critical, with high inflation and rising non-performing loans (NPLs) identified as key risks affecting financial sector resilience.

The research highlights the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment alongside effective regulatory oversight to protect depositors and promote financial inclusion.

Transforming Zimbabwe’s Economy Through Productivity and Value Addition

The second study examined Zimbabwe’s structural transformation journey between 1991 and 2023, assessing changes in employment patterns, production, exports, and industrial development.

The findings highlight several key challenges:

1. Moving Workers into Higher Productivity Activities

Although labor has gradually shifted away from agriculture, much of this movement has been towards low-productivity informal urban services rather than higher-value industries. This has created a situation often described as “urbanization without industrialization.”

2. Revitalizing Manufacturing and Agro-Processing

The study notes that manufacturing’s contribution to GDP has declined from historical levels of approximately 22–23% to around 14–15%.

Restoring industrial capacity will require:

1. improved macroeconomic stability;
2. investment in productive sectors;
3. stronger value chains;
4. increased agro-processing and manufacturing capacity.

3. Addressing Infrastructure Constraints

Reliable energy, efficient transport systems, and modern logistics infrastructure remain essential for improving competitiveness.

The study highlights the importance of well-designed Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in addressing infrastructure gaps and unlocking opportunities under regional initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Turning Evidence into Policy Action

Speaking at the validation workshop, ZEPARI Executive Director Dr. Gibson Chigumira reaffirmed the institute’s commitment to generating evidence-based research that supports national development priorities.

The validated studies will contribute to policy discussions and implementation strategies under the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2) as Zimbabwe continues its journey towards achieving Vision 2030.

Through research, dialogue, and stakeholder engagement, ZEPARI continues to strengthen the link between evidence, policy, and sustainable economic development.

By Decent Moyo